Measuring return-on-investement for security (information security/cybersecurity) has always been hard. This is a problem for both cybersecurity vendors and service providers as well as for CISOs, as they find it hard to convince the budget stakeholders why they need another pile of money for tool X.

Return on Security Investment (ROSI) has been discussed, including academically, for a while. But we haven’t yet found a sound methodology for it. I’m not proposing one either, but I wanted to mark some points for such a methodology that I think are important. Otherwise, decisions are often taken by “auditor said we need X” or “regulation says we need Y”. Which are decent reasons to buy something, but it makes security look like a black hole cost center. It’s certainly no profit center, but the more tangibility we add, the more likely investments are going to work.

I think the leading metric is “likelihood of critical incident”. Businesses are (rightly) concerned with this. They don’t care about the number of reconnaissance attempts, false positives ratios, MTTRs and other technical things. This likelihood, if properly calculated, can lead to a sum of money lost due to the incident (due to lack of availability, data loss, reputational cost, administrative fines, etc.). The problem is we can’t get company X and say “you are 20% likely to get hit because that’s the number for SMEs”. It’s likely that a number from a vendor presentation won’t ring true. So I think the following should be factored in the methodology:

• Likelihood of incident per type – ransomware, DDoS, data breach, insider data manipulation, are all differently likely.
• Likelihood of incident per industry – industries vary greatly in terms of hacker incentive. Apart from generic ransomware, other attacks are more likely to be targeted at the financial industry, for example, than the forestry industry. That’s why EU directives NIS and NIS2 prioritize some industries as more critical
• Likelihood of incident per organization size or revenue – not all SMEs and not all large enterprises are the same – the number of employees and their qualification may mean increased or decreased risk; company revenue may make it stand out ontop of the target list (or at the bottom)
• Likelihood of incident per team size and skill – if you have one IT guy doing printers and security, it’s more likely to get hit by a critical incident than if you have a SOC team. Sounds obvious, but it’s a spectrum, and probably one with diminishing returns, especially for SMEs
• Likelihood of incident per available security products – if you have nothing installed, you are more likely to get hit. If you have a simple AV, you can the basic attacks out. If you have a firewall, a SIEM/XDR, SOAR, threat intel subscriptions, things are different. Having them, of course, doesn’t mean they are properly deployed, but the types of tools matter in the ballpark calculations

How to get that data – I’m sure someone collects it. If nobody does, governments should. Such metrics are important for security decisions and therefore for the overall security of the ecosystem.

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